FROM SOFT POWER TO COMPUTATIONAL DIPLOMACY: THE TRANSFORMATION OF KAZAKHSTAN'S FOREIGN POLICY TOOLKIT (2020–2028)

Abstract

Kazakhstan entered the 2020s with a foreign-policy model that had already acquired a recognizable character: multivector diplomacy, pragmatic relations with competing centers of power, commitment to multilateral institutions, economic diplomacy, and a careful use of soft-power instruments. What has changed during the current decade is not the basic philosophy of this policy, but the political and technological environment in which it operates. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the digitalization of diplomatic interaction; the geopolitical disruption that followed 2022 increased the complexity of Kazakhstan's external relations; and the rapid development of artificial intelligence introduced new possibilities for processing information, monitoring risks and supporting policy analysis. This article examines how these developments are reshaping Kazakhstan's foreign-policy toolkit between 2020 and 2028. It argues that Kazakhstan is not abandoning soft power in favor of technology. Rather, a new computational layer is gradually being added to existing diplomatic practices. The article introduces the concept of computational multivectorism to describe the possible convergence of Kazakhstan's traditional multivector strategy with data analysis, artificial intelligence, automated information processing, scenario modelling and digital strategic communication. The research distinguishes between the empirical period of 2020-2026 and the prospective period of 2027-2028. The latter is examined through scenario analysis rather than treated as an established future. The article concludes that the most realistic direction for Kazakhstan is not automated diplomacy, but augmented diplomacy: a model in which computational technologies improve the capacity of diplomats and policymakers to manage complexity while final political judgment, responsibility and negotiation remain fundamentally human.