Impact des chocs sur la productivité globale des facteurs et dynamiques des fluctuations économiques à Madagascar : une analyse par un modèle DSGE de type cycle réel (RBC)

Abstract

In a context of persistent macroeconomic instability, this study investigates the impact of total factor productivity (TFP) shocks on economic fluctuations in Madagascar. Using a Real Business Cycle (RBC) variant of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, we analyze the response of key macroeconomic variables (output, consumption, investment, employment) to an exogenous productivity shock. The parameter values of the model are determined through Bayesian estimation based on empirical data from Madagascar. Results show that TFP shocks play a critical role in driving cyclical dynamics, especially through investment and labor channels. These findings highlight the importance of economic policies aimed at improving productivity to foster long-term, stable growth.