Modelling the Optimization of Irrigation Regimes for Agricultural Crops in Shida Kartli up to 2050

Abstract

Research Relevance
Global climate change represents one of the most pressing challenges of the twenty-first century, exerting a substantial influence on both the agricultural sector and the management of water resources. Owing to its distinctive climatic characteristics, the Shida Kartli region is marked by a high degree of aridity and an increasing demand for irrigation water.
Objective
The primary objective of this study is to optimize irrigation regimes for agricultural crops across the municipalities of the region and to develop mathematical models for forecasting future irrigation requirements and related indicators up to the year 2050.
Methodology
The research involved a comprehensive assessment of climatic parameters within the administrative units of Shida Kartli, namely the municipalities of Gori, Kaspi, Kareli, and Khashuri, during the growing season (April–September). The calculations were based on the soil water balance approach, incorporating key variables such as air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and soil evapotranspiration coefficients.
Results
The findings reveal pronounced disparities between lowland and highland zones. The analysis demonstrated that during July and August the optimal irrigation interval decreases to approximately 16–17 days in Gardabani, Gori, and Khashuri, whereas in Kareli Municipality the corresponding interval reaches 31–33 days. Taking projected climate change scenarios into account, irrigation intervals in lowland areas are expected to decline even further by 2050, potentially resulting in significant water shortages and increasing pressure on regional water resources.
Conclusion
The study offers practical recommendations regarding regional agro-climatic zoning, the immediate implementation of water-efficient irrigation technologies, including drip and sprinkler irrigation systems, and the modernization of existing irrigation infrastructure. These measures are considered essential for enhancing water-use efficiency and ensuring the sustainable management of water resources under future climatic conditions.