Impact de la Masse Salariale sur l’Inflation à Madagascar : Une Analyse Empirique via un Modèle VAR

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of public wage expenditure on inflation in Madagascar over the period from 2000 to 2023. Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the study explores the dynamic relationship between government wage policies and inflation, while also considering the effects of other key macroeconomic variables such as monetary supply, real GDP, and exchange rates. The results confirm a significant and robust relationship between public wage increases and inflation, with a noticeable inflationary peak occurring within two years following an increase in public salaries. The impulse response functions indicate that inflation rises by nearly 0.9 percentage points on average, with the effects persisting over a medium-term horizon (up to five years). Furthermore, the variance decomposition shows that public wage expenditure accounts for up to 31% of inflationary fluctuations over five years, highlighting the structural importance of wage policy in Madagascar's macroeconomic equilibrium. The study also emphasizes the limitations of the VAR model, including its inability to account for informal economic factors and the lack of regional data. The findings suggest the need for more comprehensive policies that balance wage increases with productive investment to mitigate inflationary pressures and enhance economic stability