Choix du régime de change et dynamique de la balance extérieure de biens et services : l’expérience africaine

Abstract

This article examines the impact of de jure exchange rate regimes (fixed, intermediate, floating) on the evolution of the external balance of goods and services in ten sub-Saharan African countries between 2000 and 2023. Using both a theoretical framework inspired by economic theories and statistical analysis, we show that intermediate regimes offer the best compromise between external stability and internal flexibility. Fixed regimes, while reassuring in calm periods, leave exporters dependent on particular products such as oil highly exposed to commodity price shocks, while floating regimes allow automatic adjustment but suffer from increased exchange rate volatility. Descriptive statistics and correlation studies confirm the strength and veracity of these results