CONSUMER LENDING AND SUSTAINABLE FINANCIAL STABILITY IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: THE CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

The relevance of this study stems from the growing share of consumer lending in Kazakhstan’s banking system and the related risks to financial stability. The purpose of the paper is to assess the impact of macroeconomic and behavioral factors on the dynamics of consumer credit and the overall resilience of the banking sector.

The research applies econometric modeling and sensitivity analysis based on quarterly data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan for 2008–2023. The Hodrick–Prescott filter was used to estimate the household credit gap, while multiple regression analysis evaluated the dependence of consumer lending on key macroeconomic indicators.

Empirical results indicate that macroeconomic variables explain only 43.3% of consumer credit growth, suggesting a stronger role of behavioral and structural drivers. The study reveals a close relationship between consumer lending, imports, and the value added in trade. It also shows that household indebtedness has reached its historical peak, with a growing sensitivity of banks to an increase in non-performing loans (NPL 90+).

The findings contribute to understanding the mechanisms of over-indebtedness and provide a quantitative basis for strengthening macroprudential policy tools. The results may serve as a foundation for developing recommendations to mitigate financial risks and enhance the stability of Kazakhstan’s banking system amid rapid consumer credit expansion