Leçons des trajectoires historiques de l’inflation : États-Unis vs France (1860-2025)

Abstract

This article analyzes the historical inflation trajectories of the United States and France to better anticipate contemporary economic challenges. The theoretical framework combines the proto-quantitative theories of money (Malestroit, Bodin), quantitative theory and its Keynesian critiques, monetarist approaches, as well as the structuralist theory of inflation. Based on century-long historical data (1913–2025) supplemented by other industrialized country cases, a comparative analysis was conducted using EViews, employing descriptive statistics and the Hodrick-Prescott filter to trace long-term trends.

The results highlight three major periods of inflationary shocks : post-World War I, post-World War II, and following the oil shocks of the 1970s. The average inflation rates during these periods were consistently higher in France (7.79 %) than in the United States (3.27 %), emphasizing the persistence of inflationary pressures in France. Hypotheses H1 (institutional credibility and fiscal discipline) and H2 (external shocks) are confirmed, while H3 (rapid transitions without strong institutions leading to hyperinflation) holds in certain contexts.

This study yields several key lessons : act swiftly and credibly on monetary policy, anchor the budget, coordinate monetary, fiscal, exchange rate, and income policies, manage supply and climate shocks through buffer stocks and insurance, secure energy supply, communicate clearly, and target support to vulnerable populations. In an unstable geopolitical context, interest rates are likely to remain elevated for extended periods