A Recovery Reversal or a Visa-Policy Response? Chinese Destination Allocation across Thailand, Japan and South Korea

Abstract

This short conference version examines Thailand's temporary visa exemption for Chinese tourists from September 25, 2023 to February 29, 2024. The article asks whether the policy window was associated with a change in Thailand's relative allocation among Chinese travelers after accounting for origin recovery, destination recovery, persistent bilateral differences, and the adverse pre-policy China-Thailand trajectory. Using official monthly arrival data for Thailand, Japan and South Korea, the study estimates a comparative interrupted-trend difference-in-difference-in-differences design. The standard unadjusted benchmark is negative, while the interrupted-trend share estimate is positive across alternative trend windows. The evidence supports a cautious interpretation: the temporary visa exemption period is associated with a destination-allocation break, not a clean estimate of visa exemption alone or a broad claim of net tourism creation