Rally Around the Flag Effect in Kazakhstan: Evidence from the January 2022 Events

Abstract

This research paper investigates the mechanism and dynamics of the rally effect in non-democratic regimes during domestic crises, using the events in Kazakhstan in January 2022 as a case study. The paper employs discourse and content analysis, focusing on President Tokayev's tweets as the unit of analysis. The study draws on three approaches to the rally effect: the institutional, public opinion, and communication approaches, offering a comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon. Analyzing linguistic features, including vocabulary, grammar, and textual structure, the research reveals President Tokayev's strategic use of language to garner increased support during the crisis. The findings suggest a substantial increase in the number of likes for Tokayev's tweets during the crisis, indicating a potential rally around the flag effect. Moreover, the analysis highlights the prevalence of negative lexical choices, future-oriented promises, and the absence of emotional punctuation in Tokayev's discourse. The paper contributes valuable insights into the intricate dynamics of the rally effect in non-democratic contexts during domestic crises, shedding light on the role of language in shaping public perception and support for leaders.